New Homes Sales Gain in June, But Gains Are Relative
After a down month in May, the sales of newly-built homes appears back on track.
As published by the Census Bureau, June’s New Home Sales report showed:
- A 24 percent sales volume increase from the month prior
- A 2-month drop in the supply of newly-built home
There are now just 210,000 new homes for sale nationwide.
June’s data is a major improvement over May, but it’s possible that the true “new home market” may be softer than the statistics suggest. This is for several reasons.
First, we’re comparing June’s sales data to the worst month in New Home Sales history.
In May, sales of new homes totaled just 267,000 units nationwide. That’s one-quarter fewer sales than in the previous worst month in New Home Sales history. May’s sales levels were awful by any measure but June’s improvement to 330,000 units remains second-worst sales levels ever posted.
Second, although much improved, June’s new home supply of 7.6 months is elevated versus the historical norm near 6.0 months. The last year has averaged 7.7 months.
For buyers of new homes , this combination of low sales volume and higher-than-normal inventory may be a positive. It’s the main reason why homebuilder confidence is reeling and the downturn has opened some doors for big discounts and deals. Free upgrades and closing cost credits can make a well-priced home even more attractive.
Plus, with mortgage rates at all-time lows and expected to rise, home affordability is may never be better.
Buyers Take The May 2010 New Home Sales Data All The Way To The Bank
One month after the federal homebuyer tax credit’s official expiration, the New Home Sales report turned in its worst showing ever.
In May 2010, for the first time in 11 months, the inventory of unsold new homes crossed the 8-month marker, posting an 8.5 month supply overall.
Additionally, new homes sales volume fell to 300,000 units nationwide — a drop of 32% and its lowest level since the Commerce Department started tracking data in 1963.
Now, universally, the press is referring to the May New Home Sales report as “poor“. A closer look, however, shows that may not be the case.
For one, we have to keep New Home Sales in perspective as a percentage of overall home sales. Yes, there were just 300,000 new homes sold in May, but there were also 5.66 million “existing” homes sold.
New Home Sales, therefore, accounted for just 5 percent of the total housing market — a very small percentage.
Another reason why the weak New Home Sales data isn’t so awful is that, when New Home Sales stall, it actually benefits home buyers. Excess supply puts a strain on sellers which, in turn, gives buyers a tremendous amount of leverage in negotiation.
When home inventories are high, builders are more apt to appease their customers in hopes of making a sale. For home buyers, this can result in buying a better product at a lower price.
Especially with builder confidence plummeting.
Since February 2009, housing has shown steady gains. There’s been both peaks and valleys across units, inventories, and prices, but overall, the market is improving. May’s New Home Sales data shows how now may an opportune time to “buy new”.
The Supply Of New Homes For Sale Just Dropped Off A Cliff
The supply of newly-built homes for sales plummeted in April, a positive indicator for the housing market as we head into the summer months.
It’s no wonder that homebuilders are breaking new ground at the fastest clip in 2 years.
At the current sales pace, the nation’s complete supply of new homes would be sold in just 5 month’s time. That’s more than double the pace of a year ago.
Also, as more good news, in terms of total housing units, the government reports that New Home Sales topped one half-million homes sold for the first time since May 2008.
It’s a similar spike as within the Existing Home Sales data released earlier this week.
But before we declare the housing market “repaired in full”, we have to consider a few of the reasons why home sales are charting so strongly.
The first reason is the federal homebuyer tax credit’s April 30 expiration. In order to claim up to $8,000 in tax credits, home buyers must have been in mutual contract for a property before May 1. There is no doubt this contributed to a run-up in sales, especially among first-time home buyers.
The second reason is that mortgage rates have remained exceptionally low, defying expert predictions. Low rates don’t sell homes, but they do make monthly payments easier to manage for households torn between renting or buying.
And, lastly, March and April’s new home sales may have been buoyed by aggressive discounting on behalf of homebuilders. As compared to February 2010, April’s average new home sale price was lower by 13 percent. That’s a sharp drop in a short period of time.
For now, though, homes are selling, supplies are dropping, and buyer interest is high. It’s no wonder builder confidence is soaring.
New Homes Sales Were Strong in March, But Not As Strong As The News Would Have You Believe
The sales of newly-built homes soared in March. Even more than what was expected. But the news may not be as glowing as what the media is telling us.
Take a look at the headlines from last Friday:
- Sales of new homes rocketed up 27 percent in March (WaPo)
- New-home sales rise fastest in 47 years (CNNMoney)
- Sales of New Homes Climb by Most Since 1963 (Business Week)
None of these statements is false, per se, but each is somewhat misleading. The biggest reason why March’s New Home Sales was even able to rise 27 percent is because data from the month before it — February — was the worst in New Home Sales history.
In February, new homes sold posted its lowest level in recorded history.
A better comparison would be against March a year earlier; or October 2009, the month before the home buyer tax credit’s initial expiration date.
Against both of those time periods, March 2010 fared well.
Home buyers – first-timers and repeats alike — went under contract last month, taking advantage of the soon-to-expire federal home buyer tax credit program. The credit gives up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat ones.
Buyers must be in mutual contract on or before April 30, 2010 to be eligible for the credit, and must closed on or before June 30, 2010.
The New Home Sales data included other strong housing data, too. The current supply of new homes nationwide is at a multi-year low. Along with stronger home demand, this should push home prices higher throughout the coming months.
It’s no wonder builders are bullish on the economy.
What is the market like in the San Bruno Area?
There is not one particular market within San Bruno. There are several difference neighborhoods that each have their own unique feel and different market conditions. Depending on if you’re looking to buy for your own use, investment, or fix and flip– there’s a neighborhood in San Bruno that will have what you’re looking for.
There are many thriving “move-up” neighborhoods that have a very nice micro-climate and attract many buyers. These listings tend to experiencing multiple offers, and a lot of interest. Acting fast in these neighborhoods is essential if you’re competing for a home and having your paperwork, including loan pre-approval in place will help you look even more attractive to the sellers.
Then, as there is everywhere nowadays, there are the neighborhoods that are saturated with short sales and foreclosures. These neighborhoods have a lot of charm and are excellent opportunities for investors and first time buyers. If you’re looking for a great deal in a great area, these are the neighborhoods to check out.
For more information contact me at stephan@stephanmarshall.com or 650.455.1528. I’m a San Bruno native and can give you the information you need about the area and show you around.
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What Should I Expect from My Lender and My Real Estate Agent’s Relationship?
The relationship between your lender and agent is extremely important when purchasing a home. The new market environment has many more regulations, hoops and sharp turns and everything relating to your home purchase should be correct and accurate up front.
The lender doesn’t want any surprises, like a seller credit the day before the lender is supposed to draw loan documentation, since surprises can cause delays which can prevent meeting important deadlines. Not meeting these deadlines can have consequences for the buyer, from losing your deposit to not being able to purchase the home at all!
Having an agent and a lender who fully understand the process and have your best interest in mind when securing financing and finding a home makes the entire transaction run more smoothly and puts you in the best position possible.
Many details of your purchase are ones your lender and agent work together on to be sure the home you’re buying is in good shape. Insurance, inspections, appraisals and understanding your financial goals and future plans are just a few things that allow your agent and lender to be sure that you are buying the right home, at the right price, and that you’ll be in the best place to move forward with one of the biggest investments of your life.
Communication is the most important thing all around so that there are no surprises!
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As The Supply Of New Homes Grows, So Does The Opportunity For A “Good Deal”
The housing recovery showed particular weakness in the New Homes Sales category last month — good news for homebuyers around the country.
A “new home” is a home for which there’s no previous owner.
New Home Sales fell 11 percent from the month prior and posted the fewest units sold in a month since 1963 — the year the government first started tracking New Home Sales data.
Right now, there are roughly 234,000 new homes for sale nationwide and, at the current sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell them all. This is nearly 2 months longer than at October 2009’s pace.
The reasons for the spike in supply are varied:
- The original home buyer tax credit expired in November
- Weather conditions were awful in most of the country in January
- Weak employment and consumer confidence continue to hinder big ticket sales
Now, these might be less-than-optimal developments for the economy as a whole, but for buyers of new homes, it’s a welcome turn of events. Home prices are based on supply and demand, after all.
As a result, this season’s home buyers may be treated to “free” upgrades from home builders, plus seller concessions and lower sales prices overall.
It’s all a matter of timing, of course. New Home Sales reports on a 1-month lag so it’s not necessarily reflective of the current, post-Super Bowl home buying season. And from market to market, sales activity varies.
That said, mortgage rates remain low, home prices are steady, and the federal tax credit gives two more months to go under contract. It’s a favorable time to buy a new home.
Michael Haigh
NMLS# 200819
Phone: 415-269-4461
Fax: 877-754-5250
Email: michael.haigh
@wjbradley.com
Ask Mike
