Falling Consumer Confidence Helps Drag Mortgage Rates Lower. For Now.
For the second consecutive month, U.S. consumer confidence is plunging. July’s official reading is its lowest since July of last year and the figures run in stark contrast to just two months ago, when the index touched a multi-year high.
According to The Conference Board, July’s figures are reflective of a more pessimistic consumer; one concerned about “business conditions and the labor market”.
Falling confidence numbers are presumed to be poor for the economy. For homeowner and home buyers , however, they can create opportunity. Low confidence can influence the mortgage market in a positive manner, driving mortgage rates down.
Mortgage rates are already at their lowest levels of all-time.
The link between consumer confidence and everyday mortgage rates roots in consumer spending.
Consumer spending accounts for close to 70% of the overall U.S. economy so, the thought goes that, a less confident consumer is less likely to spend money, thereby retarding economic growth. This harms the stock markets and drives cash to bonds, including mortgage-backed bonds.
More bond demand leads bond prices to rise which, in turn, pushes mortgage rates lower.
The other side of lagging confidence is that Americans may be less likely to take new financial risks when they’re feeling unsure, including buying a new home. This can then drag on the housing market, negatively impacting home prices.
Falling home values can help buyers, harm sellers, and stymie would-be refinancers.
It’s tough to predict how consumer confidence data will work its way through the economy, but in the near-term, it appears to be helping mortgage rates stay low. If you’re floating a mortgage rate with your lender, or contemplating a refinance, the time may be right to lock in a rate.
Low rates can’t last forever.
Consumer Confidence Hints At Higher Home Prices And Higher Mortgage Rates, Too
The Consumer Confidence Index is rising, a potentially double-edged sword for Americans, in general.
According to The Conference Board, economic confidence is as high as it’s been since August 2007 — 4 months before the start of the recession. Americans are optimistic again.
Confidence matters to the economy because as confidence increases, in theory, consumer spending follows. Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy.
It’s why Wall Street is responsive to confidence data.
When consumer confidence is rising, households start to make big-ticket purchases they may have otherwise put off indefinitely. Maybe it’s a replacing old appliances; or, trading in an old automobiles; or, splurging on a vacation.
Rising confidence can also spur real estate sales.
When confidence is rising, a growing family that chose to “make do” in their 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom starter home may opt to move-up to a 4-bedroom, 3-bath instead at a slightly higher monthly carrying cost. And there are families in every city in every state making those same decisions.
As a result, the housing market gets a boost — especially in the mid-to-upper price ranges. Values rise on higher demand for homes.
The downside is that growing confidence tends to push conforming and FHA mortgage rates up. This is because an expanding economy draws investment dollars away from bonds and into stocks — including mortgage bonds.
The reduced demand for mortgage-backed bonds leads bond prices to fall and mortgage rates to rise. Sometimes by a little, sometimes by lot.
So, if you’re buying a home or thinking of a refinance, rising confidence in the economy may be a signal to act sooner rather than later. Talk to your real estate agent and/or your loan officer about next steps and get your plan in place.
Why Should I Have A Buyer’s Agent?
For most of us, buying a home is the biggest single investment we’re likely to make – and we’re only likely to do it maybe once or twice in a lifetime. The process is, by nature, filled with checks and balances and many complex details. Traditionally, agents were legally obligated to protect the interests of the home seller. Today preferences are changing. One of these changes is that more homebuyers are choosing to have their own real estate agent, known as a buyer’s agent, to legally represent them.
A buyer’s agent represents the buyer, not the seller, and has full fiduciary duties including loyalty to you. By definition, the buyer’s agent has your best interests in mind throughout the transaction. The percentage of homebuyers with buyer representation has grown significantly in the past decade. According to a recent National Association of Realtors® survey, nearly half (46%) of home buyers used the services of a buyer’s agent last year, and four out of every five buyer’s agent agreements were in writing.
The benefits of buyer representation is the dedication of a buyer’s agent to the home buyer. The buyer’s agent and homebuyer establish a mutual agreement, known as a buyer agency agreement, that will entitle the homebuyer to, but is not limited by:
Loyalty
The real estate agent must act in the best interest of the buyer.
Disclosure
All material facts such as relationships between agent and other parties, existence of other offers, status of earnest money, seller’s financial condition, property’s true worth, commission split with other brokers, and legal effect of important contract provisions.
Confidentiality
Any discussions, facts, or information that should not be revealed to others but does not include responsibility of fairness and honesty in dealings with all parties.
Accounting in Dealings
Reporting of where any money placed in the hands of the broker is kept.
Reasonable Skill and Care
Arriving at a reasonable purchase price and advising the buyer of such, affirmatively discovering material facts and disclosing them to the buyer, investigating the material facts related to the sale. With a buyer agency, the interests of the home buyer will be represented in the purchase of the home. This scenario is different from a typical transaction where the buyer is not technically represented.
Contact Brooke at bdunbar@cashin.com.
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How Rising Consumer Sentiment Is Linked To Higher Home Prices
Consumer Sentiment has been on the rise since last February and it’s something to which home buyers should pay attention.
The affordability of your next home may hinge on consumer confidence.
As the economy recovers from a near-the-brink recession, many of the elements of a full recovery are in place. Business investment is returning, household spending is expanding, and financial systems are gaining strength.
Consumer confidence is at a 2-year high.
What’s missing from the recovery, though, is jobs growth. Another net 20,000 jobs were lost in January. Data like that hinders economic growth.
That said, twenty-thousand jobs lost is a much better figure than the several hundred thousand that were shed per month throughout early-2009, but it’s still a net negative number. Not only does household income drop when Americans lose jobs but so does the average American’s confidence in his or her own economic future.
This is one reason why jobs growth is so closely watched by Wall Street — jobs are linked to higher confidence levels which, in turn, is believed to spur consumer spending.
Consumer spending represents 70% of the U.S. economy.
As confidence rises, it could be good news for the economy, but bad news for home buyers. More spending expands the economy and, all things equal, that leads mortgage rates higher.
Same for home prices. More confidence means more buyers which, in turn, squeezes the supply-and-demand curve in favor of sellers.
Later this morning, the University of Michigan will release its February Consumer Sentiment survey. If the reading is higher-than-expected, prepare for mortgage rates to rise and home affordability to worsen.
Michael Haigh
NMLS# 200819
Phone: 415-269-4461
Fax: 877-754-5250
Email: michael.haigh
@wjbradley.com
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